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NASDAQ Technical Analysis (did you exit your short)?
NASDAQ Technical Analysis for Today: Bulls Regain Control After the Washout, but Key Levels Matter
The NASDAQ has gone through a sharp and unsettling pullback yesterday, raising questions among traders and investors about whether the broader uptrend is losing steam, and maybe the new Trump tarriff on chips is going to startle the market. Even the USDJPY fell back below the 2025 high following intense verbal intervention, so what's next?
Based on a combination of price structure, value behavior, and order flow intel, the picture today is more constructive than it was yesterday, though not without important conditions.
The key takeaway is this: the market has likely completed a short-term washout, and the medium-term outlook has improved, but bullish continuation depends on how price behaves around a small set of critical levels.
Nasdaq Futures Yesterday and Today. From Washout to Stabilization, What Changed?
Earlier in the week, selling pressure intensified and the NASDAQ moved lower in a way that justified a bearish medium-term bias. That downside move did its job. Heavy volume appeared during the decline, weak hands were forced out, and price explored lower value areas.
What followed was more important than the selloff itself.
Instead of cascading lower, price stabilized, value stopped migrating down, and buyers began to step back in. On higher timeframes, the market started to accept prices above prior value, which is often a sign that the downside auction has run its course.
This shift is why the medium-term bias has turned more bullish than bearish again, even though short-term pullbacks and pauses remain possible.
The Bullish Case is In Tact Now at Nasdaq and What Needs to Hold
For traders and investors leaning bullish, the most important zone to monitor is 25,600.
This level matters for several reasons:
It aligns with the current point of control.
It matches yesterday’s VWAP.
It overlaps with prior points of control from earlier sessions.
In other words, 25,600 is a line in the sand. If price pulls back and buyers defend this area, the bullish reversal thesis remains intact.
Just above that, 25,638 also deserves attention. This level marks yesterday’s value area high and sits very close to today’s developing VWAP. Bulls ideally want to see price remain above this zone, or quickly reclaim it if tested.
As long as price holds above the 25,600 to 25,638 area, pullbacks are more likely to be rotational and corrective, not trend-breaking.
Where Nasdaq Bulls May Take Profits
On the upside, traders should be realistic. Even in bullish environments, markets do not move in a straight line.
One area that stands out is around 25,860. This zone sits close to:
The value area low from two days ago.
The VWAP from roughly three sessions back.
These overlapping references make it a natural place where partial profit-taking could appear, especially for short-term traders. Seeing hesitation or consolidation there would not invalidate the bullish case. It would be a normal part of a healthy advance.
The Bearish Scenario for Nasdaq Today (Less Likely, Despite Yesterday): What Would Change the View
Balanced analysis requires clarity on invalidation.
If price fails to hold above 25,600, the bullish premise weakens meaningfully. In that case:
The market may revisit yesterday’s low.
A deeper rotation toward the 25,350 area becomes plausible.
Such a move would suggest that buyers are not yet ready to build value higher, and the market would likely need more time to repair before another sustained attempt upward.
How Order Flow Intel Frames the Current Bias for Nasdaq Today
From an order flow perspective, the message today is more constructive than it was yesterday.
Heavy selling volume earlier in the week appears to have exhausted itself.
Recent price advances show acceptance rather than immediate rejection.
On medium timeframes, buyers have regained control, even though short-term timing has at times been stretched.
This does not mean a promise of higher prices. Markets can always surprise. It does mean that, at this stage, order flow intel favors a bullish recovery scenario, provided key support zones are respected.
Practical Guidance for Nasdaq Traders and Investors
Bullish bias remains valid as long as 25,600 holds.
Expect pauses and pullbacks. These are normal after a sharp rebound.
Use pullbacks into key levels to evaluate risk, rather than chasing strength.
If 25,600 fails, reassess. The market may need to explore lower prices again.
Investors and traders are welcome to revisit this page as we may have additional insights coming from our orderFlow analysis methodology later today. Till then, the long-term structure remains constructive, even after the yesterday's decline and volatility..
orderFlow Intel Scores and How to Use Them
To guide traders and investors, orderFlow Intel uses a multi-timeframe scoring framework, with scores ranging from –10 to +10. Each score reflects a different time horizon and helps readers understand not just direction, but also confidence and timing.
How to interpret the scale
+7 to +10: Strong bullish conditions, early to mid trend
+4 to +6: Bullish bias, continuation possible but with pauses
+1 to +3: Mild bullish bias, tactical and selective
0: Neutral, no clear edge
Negative scores: Bearish conditions or timing exhaustion
Current higher-timeframe scores for the NASDAQ
Long-term score: +3 The broader structure remains constructive. The recent selloff looks more like a washout than a breakdown, and longer-term value is stabilizing. This keeps the bigger-picture bullish case intact, even though volatility has increased.
Medium-term score: +7 The medium-term outlook has improved meaningfully compared with yesterday. Buyers have regained control, value has migrated higher, and price is being accepted above prior balance areas. This reflects a bullish recovery phase rather than a fragile bounce.
We intentionally do not publish a fixed short-term score in articles, because short-term conditions can change within minutes or hours during the trading day. Publishing a static short-term score could confuse readers who encounter this analysis later.
How the framework works, in brief
orderFlow Intel combines an advanced AI learning system with a disciplined analyst methodology. Rather than relying on a single indicator, the framework evaluates how price interacts with key reference levels while weighing buying and selling pressure, volume behavior, and acceptance versus rejection across multiple time horizons.
The guiding principles are:
Higher timeframes define the structural direction.
Medium timeframes show who is gaining control.
Shorter timeframes are used for timing and execution, and therefore change more frequently.
This separation helps avoid a common mistake: confusing a bullish trend with a good entry.
For readers interested in live trade ideas and short-term timing, we regularly share opinions and setups in our Telegram channel: 👉 https://t.me/investingLiveStocks
For example, during today’s NASDAQ move, we initiated a long position around 25,609, took a first partial profit near 25,637, moved the stop to entry to eliminate risk, and later took another profit near 25,706, while keeping additional targets open. These are opinions based on real-time analysis, not financial advice, and many are informed by orderFlow Intel insights as market conditions evolve
Trader Update – NASDAQ, 16 minutes are the US market open
The washout phase of yesterday is complete. Buyers are rebuilding control at a higher level, and the broader bullish recovery thesis remains valid.
Current orderFlow Intel scores (–10 to +10 scale):
Long-term: +4 – Structure repaired after the washout
Medium-term: +7 – Bullish recovery confirmed, value migrating higher
Short-term: Timing-dependent – Selective only, avoid chasing after extended moves
Key takeaway: the trend has improved meaningfully, but execution still matters. Pullbacks and reactions around key levels will offer better risk-reward than chasing strength.
Trade ideas and short-term timing updates may follow later as conditions evolve.
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Trader Update
Thursday, 15 January 2026 – 12:09 ET
The washout phase is complete, and the NASDAQ continues to show signs that buyers are rebuilding control at higher levels.
Since the U.S. session open, price briefly dipped below VWAP and yesterday’s upper deviation, but that move failed to gain acceptance. Buyers stepped back in quickly, reclaiming VWAP and pushing price higher again. This type of failed intraday breakdown is typically constructive in a bullish recovery phase and suggests that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than expanded.
From an orderFlow Intel perspective, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, while short-term conditions are becoming more location-dependent as price approaches prior high-volume areas. The region between 25,960 and 26,000 remains an important zone to monitor, as it includes prior session high-volume nodes and the psychologically important 26,000 level.
Updated orderFlow Intel scores (–10 to +10 scale):
Long-term: +4 – Structure repaired after the washout
Medium-term: +7 – Bullish recovery intact, value accepted higher
Short-term: Tactical only – Expect two-way trade and pauses near resistance
Key takeaway: the broader bullish recovery thesis remains valid, but traders should continue to avoid chasing strength and instead focus on reactions around key levels and VWAP. Further updates may follow later in the session as order flow conditions evolve.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. -
The USD is modestly lower to start the US session.
The US dollar is trading mostly lower with the USDJPY the weakest (-0.34%). THe greenback is lower by 0.17% versus the GBP and down -0.10% versus the EUR. The changes versus the other currency pairs including the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD are all within 0.10% from the closing levels yesterday.
Tariffs? What tariffs. China’s 2025 trade data show exports powering the economy to a record surplus, defying expectations that tariffs would meaningfully slow its manufacturing engine.
Key takeaways:
China’s trade surplus hit a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, underscoring export strength despite tariff pressure.
Exports rose 5.5% in 2025, only slightly slower than 2024, while December exports grew 6.6% YoY and imports rebounded 5.7% YoY.
Shipments to the United States fell 20%, but losses were offset by strong gains to Southeast Asia (+13%), the European Union (+8.4%), Latin America (+7.4%), and Africa (+26%).
Global demand—helped by AI-related spending—and producer-price deflation kept Chinese goods competitive abroad.
Manufacturing and exports drove growth, while property and household consumption lagged, reinforcing a “two-track” economy.
Supply-chain diversification hasn’t displaced China; even when final assembly shifts elsewhere, Chinese components and equipment remain central.
Geopolitical risks are rising, with concerns about cheap-goods inflows and warnings from the International Monetary Fund that China is too large to rely on exports for growth.
2026 outlook is mixed: some export strength was front-loaded due to tariff uncertainty, but competitiveness and resilient global demand may keep exports firm; Beijing is phasing out export tax rebates for solar products and batteries amid oversupply.
Can China keep the growth without the US? Was the numbers skewed because of the frontloading of inventory? So far they have weathered the storms.
In Japan, the election drama continues to unfold. Japan opposition parties CDP and Komeito today have started talks on forming a new party. That sent the USDJPY lower and back below the January 2025 high at 158.87. The next targets come in at the November high at 157.89. The December high was at 157.76. The low price today reached to 15815. That was just short of the rising 100 hour MA at 158.08 (blue line on the chart below).
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is said to be poised to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026, triggering a high-stakes snap general election.
The Essentials:
Target Dates: Election Day is expected to be either February 8 or February 15, 2026.
The Strategy: Takaichi is looking to capitalize on her 70% approval rating to reclaim a solid majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The party currently relies on a "confidence and supply" coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party to stay in power.
The Risks: Calling an election now could delay the 2026 National Budget, potentially impacting local government funding and inflation-relief measures.
There ware more bank earnings today with Wells, BofA and Citigroup announcing today. JPMorgan and Bank of New Yorked kicked off the earnings season yesterday.
So far, the early U.S. bank earnings point to a mixed start to the season, with stronger-than-expected results at the money-center banks offset by softer performance from regional lenders.
Earnings recap:
Citigroup (C) Q4 2025: EPS $1.81 (BEAT; exp. $1.68), Revenue $21.0B (BEAT; exp. $20.55B)
Bank of America (BAC) Q4 2025: EPS $0.98 (BEAT; exp. $0.96), Revenue $28.4B (BEAT; exp. $27.56B)
Wells Fargo (WFC) Q4 2025: EPS $1.62 (MISS; exp. $1.66), Revenue $21.3B (MISS; exp. $21.64B)
Looking the share prices:
- JP Morgan tumbled 4.19% yesterday and is unchanged in premarket trading today.
- Bank of New York rose 1.88% yesterday. Its shares are currently trading up 0.06% in premarket trading.
- Bank of America shares fell -1.18% yesterday and are currently down -0.4% today.
- Wells Fargo fell -1.47% yesterday and premarket shares are down -1.88%.
- Citigroup fell -1.19% yesterday and is currently up 0.09% today
Overall, the US stock indices are currently trading lower:
- Dow industrial average -142 points.
- S&P index -27 points
- NASDAQ index -128 points
in the US debt market, yields are marginally lower:
- 2-year yield 3.520%, -0.8 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.732%, -1.0 basis points.
- 10 year yield 4.159%, -1.1 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.821%, -0.7 basis points
US PPI will will be released at the bottom of the hour with the headline expected to rise by 0.2% and X food and energy also expected to rise by 0.2%. The YoY numbers are both expected to come in at 2.7%. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% with ex autos up 0.4% in the control group also up 0.4%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
The USD is moving to new highs. A technical look at some of the major currency pairs
The U.S. dollar is pushing higher, led by USDJPY, which is up 0.55% and once again setting the tone for the broader FX market. In the video above, I walk through the technical picture for USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and AUDUSD, focusing on bias, risk, and targets.
USDJPY
USDJPY is making another run above the January 2025 high at 158.86, extending beyond the key swing zone between 158.55 and 158.86. Earlier today, the market successfully tested the lower edge of that zone, giving buyers the green light to push higher.
That swing area now becomes the risk level for longs — stay above it and the bias remains bullish; move below it and buyers lose control. If price continues higher, the next upside target comes in near the psychological 160.00 level.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has slipped back below both the 200-hour moving average at 1.3465 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.3444, shifting short-term momentum back toward the sellers.
As long as price stays below the 100-hour MA, downside risk remains. A more conservative risk level for shorts is the 200-hour MA. On the downside, the next target sits in the 1.3391 to 1.3404 swing zone, which is reinforced by the 200-day moving average at 1.3390, making this a high-interest support area.
USDCHF
USDCHF has pushed to a new short-term high, testing resistance near 0.8017, the highs from both yesterday and Friday. A sustained break above this level opens the door toward the 0.8047 trendline, taking price to its highest levels since December 10.
On the downside, 0.8000 now becomes the key risk level. It is a natural psychological level and has acted as both support and resistance multiple times in the past, making it a critical short-term pivot.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD attempted to rally earlier in the session but stalled at resistance near 0.6727. That failure triggered a sharp move lower, breaking through both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6700, and accelerating selling pressure down to a session low of 0.6674.
The next key downside target sits at the 61.8% retracement of the December 18 rally at 0.66587, a level that also lines up with multiple prior swing highs and lows. A break below there would shift focus to the 0.6625–0.6635 support zone.
For buyers to regain short-term control, price would need to move back above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6700.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
USDCAD Technicals: The USDCAD are having some victories technically. Can they continue?
USDCAD moved lower today after the U.S. CPI report came in slightly softer than expected, adding pressure to the dollar and reinforcing the short-term downside bias in the pair.
From a technical perspective, the pair fell back below its 100-hour moving average at 1.38706, giving sellers another modest but important victory in the near term. That setback comes after a strong rebound since December 26, when USDCAD climbed from a low of 1.36415 to a peak at 1.3917 on Friday. That rally had briefly pushed the pair above its 100-day moving average for the first time since December 5 (currently at 1.39028), but dollar selling on Monday — driven in part by weekend news of a U.S. Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell — forced the pair back below that longer-term benchmark. The failed breakout has tilted the short-term technical bias back toward the downside. In the video above, I walk through the key technical levels that are shaping near-term price action.
Fundamentally, the CPI report reinforced the idea that inflation pressures are easing, but still remains above the Fed target at 2.0%. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate held steady at 2.7%. The more important signal came from core inflation, which increased just 0.2% on the month versus expectations for 0.3%, with the annual core rate at 2.6%, below the 2.7% forecast and unchanged from the prior reading. Even the Fed’s closely watched supercore measure — services excluding housing — cooled, slipping to 0.29% from 0.35% previously, pointing to softer underlying services inflation.
Markets reacted in classic dovish fashion. Rate-cut expectations for year-end increased from around 52 basis points to roughly 57 basis points, pushing U.S. yields lower, weakening the dollar, lifting equities, and extending gains in precious metals. The 10-year Treasury yield is down about two basis points on the day. Importantly, the data also confirms the disinflation trend seen in November, which many had initially dismissed due to government shutdown distortions. While the report alone is unlikely to force an immediate shift in Fed policy, the combination of cooling inflation and a still-resilient economy remains supportive for risk assets, assuming no new political or geopolitical shocks emerge.
That view aligns with comments from Wall Street Journal Fed-watcher Nick Timiraos, who said the December CPI report is not enough to move the Federal Reserve off its current wait-and-see stance. He noted that officials want clearer and more sustained evidence that inflation is leveling off and heading lower before resuming rate cuts, meaning a couple of softer prints will not be sufficient. With the next FOMC meeting at the end of January, policymakers are in no rush to react.
Timiraos also reminded readers that the Fed cut rates at its last three meetings, bringing the policy rate to a 3.5% to 3.75% range, not because inflation had been beaten, but because officials were increasingly concerned about the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the labor market. Looking ahead, further rate cuts will require either new signs of labor-market weakness or more convincing evidence that inflation is fading, a process that could take several more months of data to confirm.
res. Trump is out with his take. Of course, he bash Powell although of course he denied he had anything to do with the investigation of the Fed Chair:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
The USD is higher ahead of the key US CPI report
The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month the court rose by 0.2%. The YoY levels are expected to come in at 2.7% for the headline and 2.7% for the core (up from 2.6%). Inflation remains a sticky. US new-home sales will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.720 million versus 0.800 million last month. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 30 year bonds at 1 PM.
US morning markets open under a cloud of geopolitical and earnings risk
US markets begin Tuesday’s session with energy markets in focus and bank earnings setting the tone, as investors digest the drone attacks of tankers around Black Sea and the official kickoff of the Q4 earnings season.
Overnight headlines confirmed that four oil tankers were struck near the Black Sea CPC terminal by drones. The CPC terminal is a key conduit for Kazakhstan’s crude exports into global markets, and the growing pattern of strikes has pushed Brent and WTI more than $1 higher as traders price in potential supply disruption and widening geopolitical risk.
The tanker incidents arrive as Washington continues to weigh military and covert options against Iran, keeping energy markets on edge. While no formal decision has been announced, the combination of Black Sea risks and Middle East tensions has created a clear upward bias in crude, reinforcing inflation-sensitive positioning ahead of US CPI later this week.
Earnings season kicks off — US banks in the spotlight
Today marks the official start of Q4 earnings season, with US financials leading the charge.
The focus is squarely on the health of the US consumer, loan growth, credit quality, and net interest margins as the Federal Reserve pivots toward an easier policy stance. JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon, have announced this morning.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) EPS $4.63 versus $4.97 expected (MISS), revenue $45.8 billion versus $46.11 billion expected (MISS). Shares of JPM are up marginally despite the miss. Yesterday the shares fell -1.43%.
Bank of New York Mellon (BNY): EPS $2.02 versus $1.91 expected (BEAT). Revenues came in at $16.0 billion versus $14.72 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down 1.3% in premarket trading
Delta Air Lines (DAL): EPS $1.64 versus $1.53 expected (BEAT). Revenues $5.19 billion versus $5.14 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down -5.11% despite the beat.
Later this week, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley follow, giving investors a full read on how large financial institutions are navigating slowing growth, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical risk.
Big tech spotlight later this week: TSMC on Thursday
Outside the banks, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) is one of the most important earnings events of the week. TSMC reports Thursday before the US open, and its guidance will be critical for:
AI-driven chip demand
Global tech supply chains
Semiconductor capex trends
Given its central role in Nvidia, Apple, and the global AI ecosystem, TSMC’s outlook has the power to move both tech stocks and global risk sentiment.
Key economic events for the rest of the week
Other economic releases scheduled this week include"
Wednesday – January 14
Core PPI m/m: 0.2%
PPI m/m: 0.2%
Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.4%
Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% vs 0.0% prior
These releases will show whether consumer demand is holding up and whether pipeline inflation pressures are easing or accelerating after CPI.
Thursday – January 15
US Weekly Jobless Claims: 215K vs 208K prior
Empire State Manufacturing Index: 0.8 vs -3.9 prior
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -1.6 vs -10.2 prior
UK GDP m/m: 0.1% vs -0.1% prior
Thursday will be a key growth check for both US manufacturing and the UK economy.
Friday – January 16
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks — markets watching for rate-cut guidance and UK inflation commentary
US stocks are marginally lower to start the day
US major indices the futures proxies trading lower
- Dow industrial average -92 points
- S&P index -
- NASDAQ index -43 point