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It's a textbook breakout in gold so far
You can put that gold chart in the technical analysis text book, at least so far.
Gold has been in a long-term bull market, almost a parabolic one from $2000 post-pandemic. After spiking to a record $3500 in April, it took a break and consolidated for five months. Now that it's clear the Fed is going to aggressively ease and the US is embracing fiscal irresponsibility, it's breaking out again.
The simple measured target of this move (1x the consolidation range) that gets you to $4000, which is something I highlighted at the start of the week as it began to break out. What we've seen so far is strong confirmation and the one-day dip yesterday opened a small window to chase the move.
I think the fundamentals are even more compelling from here. The global order around trade is breaking down and the images of Chinese Indian and Russian leaders holding hands this week points to big geopolitical shifts to come.
Seasonally, it's not a great time for gold but that rapidly turns in November so it might be best to sweat it out even if this is a false breakout (or wait for a retest of the range).
In any case, I've been banging the drum since $2000 and I'm finding it tough to find any reason to change gears now.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
Euro rises to the highest since July 27 as the US dollar wilts. What's next
The euro has been one of the beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar following another soft non-farm payrolls report. It's up 96 pips to 1.1745 and touched as high as 1.1759. That's a fresh high since July 27 and looks like a breakout from the recent period of consolidation, particularly if it can close above the August highs.
If it can sustain some momentum it will have challenges at 1.1789 (July high) and 1.1830 (June high) before it can find some clear air but that dip down to 1.14 is now looking something like an inverted head and shoulders that targets +1.20.
On the fundamental side, the ECB is set to meet this month and hold rates. European economic data has also been surprising to the upside while US data has surprised to the downside. The market could soon focus on the contrasting monetary policy outlooks and -- the optimists at least -- may believe that Europe is recovering from the cycle bottom. And to be fair, what's happening in Italy is impressive with unemployment at generational lows.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
US 2-year yields down 10 basis points to lowest since Liberation Day
The best look at how the market is repricing the Fed curve is in two-year yields and it's a clear picture here. They're down 10 basis points today to the lowest since the Liberation Day spike. Beyond that you need to go all the way back to 2022 for lower yields.
At that time, the market wasn't sure whether Trump's tariffs would be bad for growth or spike inflation (or both). Now we're getting indications that the growth and jobs picture is getting hit first, which is going to prompt deep rate cuts from the Fed. For the year ahead, we're now pricing in 136 bps in easing, which would get Fed funds close to 3%.
The nightmare scenario is that the inflation from tariffs comes later and the Fed can't cut. That's going to make future inflation readings critical.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
S&P 500 analysis today
SPX Order-Flow & Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (Sep 4, 2025)
Hello traders and investors, before the NFP is out in a few hours, we start out with looking at the data of the SPX as of yesterday's close. We follow up with a S&P 500 futures analysis, at the bottom of this page, according to the tradeCompass methodology. Let's dive in to the SPX first
SPX is bullish above: 6510.8–6511.0 (clear acceptance above today’s high) SPX is bearish below: 6507.5 Primary bias: Slight bearish tilt
Partial targets (both directions): VWAP (intraday “fair value”) Developing POC (volume profile magnet) Value Area High / Value Area Low (today’s VAH/VAL)
Market context & directional bias
Spot: 6,502.09 at the close of 04 Sept (yesterday).
Options order flow: Net option delta ≈ –2,133, with bearish pressure –35,949 vs bullish +33,816 deltas → a mild negative on-balance read.
Weighted averages: Bullish W‑Avg 6509.09 vs Bearish W‑Avg 6509.16 → tight balance around 6509.1–6509.2 (micro pivot).
Backdrop: Technical label shows Uptrend and 30‑day IV 11.8 (subdued). Put OI > Call OI on the snapshot, which slightly leans defensive, but intraday execution still hinges on the thresholds above.
Takeaway: We’re hovering at a micro‑pivot (~6509.1–6509.2) with a small bearish skew in option delta. Momentum confirmation is needed: strength only if price can accept above 6510.8–6511.0; weakness confirmed below 6507.5.
Options market on SPX tells us that...
Yesterday’s net option delta –2,133 with nearly equal bullish/bearish weighted averages says balance with a bearish edge. Combine this with price acceptance around 6511/6507.5 to time entries; don’t rely on order flow alone—let price confirm.
Now let's dive into the S&P 500 Futures Analysis for Today
S&P 500 Futures Market Context & Directional Bias
S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) marked a fresh all-time high in pre-market trading, but momentum has stalled as the market awaits today’s non-farm payrolls report. Historically, in the hours before a major data release, range-bound behavior is common as traders reduce exposure.
At the time of writing, ES is trading near 6,525, sitting just under today’s Value Area High (6,527.75). The fair value zone is anchored around the VWAP at 6,521.95 and POC at 6,521.75. On the downside, today’s Value Area Low sits at 6,518.75, while yesterday’s value levels cluster below at 6,516.50 (VAH) and 6,511 (POC).
This tight structure suggests most breakout attempts are likely to fade until NFP provides direction. The tradeCompass map therefore emphasizes controlled, short-range targets with risk management front and center.
S&P 500 Futures Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy for Today (05 Sept, 2025)
Bearish scenarios (below 6,527):
First reaction level at 6,522 (VWAP zone), where fair value often acts as a magnet.
Next pause expected around 6,519 (just above VAL), likely to attract liquidity.
Additional downside checkpoint at 6,517, near today’s low-volume edge.
Further extension possible to 6,514.5, a liquidity pocket linked to yesterday’s highs.
Deeper bearish probe may touch 6,511.5, just above yesterday’s POC.
Bullish scenarios (above 6,535):
First upside target at 6,540, a logical extension point.
Continuation into 6,545, testing early breakout enthusiasm.
If momentum sustains, possible stretch toward 6,550.
Educational Insight: Why VWAP, Value Area, and POC Matter
For intraday traders, these reference points are not arbitrary.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects where the bulk of trading has occurred relative to volume. Prices gravitating back to VWAP signal reversion to perceived fair value.
Value Area (VAH/VAL): Defines the 70% zone of trading activity. Price tends to oscillate within these bounds unless strong directional pressure emerges.
Point of Control (POC): The single price level with the highest traded volume, often acting as a magnet intraday.
Together, these metrics help traders recognize when price is likely to mean-revert versus when genuine imbalance emerges. The tradeCompass methodology integrates them into clear bullish and bearish thresholds, simplifying decision-making in complex market conditions.
S&P 500 Futures Trade Management Reminders (...according to the tradeCompass methodology)
One trade per direction at a time within tradeCompass.
Take partial profits as levels are hit and move stops to entry after the second target.
Stops should not be placed beyond the opposite threshold (e.g., don’t hold shorts if price sustains above 6,535).
Stay flexible: range days can turn into trend days if NFP sparks a decisive break.
Outlook Beyond NFP
While today’s map is focused on intraday ranges, traders should keep in mind that a negative NFP shock could shift the bias. Below 6,485 (yesterday’s VWAP), downside swing targets emerge at 6,450 (round number liquidity pool) and 6,439 (September 3rd VAL).
Disclaimer
This analysis is for decision support only. It is not financial advice. Futures trading involves significant risk, and traders should evaluate their own risk tolerance before acting. Always trade at your own risk and adapt to evolving market conditions. Visit investingLive.com for additional views
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. -
Gold analysis for today after another ATH yesterday
Gold Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (September 4, 2025)
Gold futures map for today: activation rules at 3,600, bullish above 3,622, bearish below 3,597.8 (after a pop over 3,600). Targets and risk plan inside.
Summary (quick map)
Instrument: Gold futures (GC) Current price: 3,588.3 (≈–1.3% vs yesterday’s close) Compass rule: No signals until price first reclaims 3,600. Bullish above: 3,622 (only after price first trades ≥3,600) Bearish below: 3,597.8 (only after price first trades ≥3,600) Primary bias: Neutral until 3,600 is retaken; leaning for a test of 3,600 before decision.
Gold Futures Market context & directional bias
Gold backed off the fresh all-time high at 3,640.1 and sliced through the 3,600 round number. Buyers showed interest around the September 2 VAH, which is where support firmed up. It’s reasonable to expect a retrace toward 3,600; after that, the next decisive move should emerge. For today’s tradeCompass we enforce discipline: nothing activates unless price first trades back at/above 3,600. From there, we’ll either confirm renewed strength above 3,622, or a pop-and-fade back under 3,597.8 to hand control to sellers.
Activation rules (read carefully) for Today's Gold Traders
Step 1: Gold futures price must trade ≥ 3,600. No setups before that on this map.
Step 2A (Bullish): If later > 3,622, bulls take control.
Step 2B (Bearish): If after reclaiming 3,600, price falls below 3,597.8, bears take control (classic fade of the 3,600 retest).
Gold Futures Key levels & partial-profit plan
Bullish sequence (only after > 3,622) for Gold Today: 3,628 — Close, logical first scale; prior micro resistance/magnet effect. 3,631 — Just under yesterday’s VAH; typical reaction zone, take more risk off. 3,640.5 — New-high vicinity; expect profit-taking/liquidity games. 3,650 — Round-number extension; stretch target if momentum persists.
Bearish sequence (only after ≥ 3,600 then < 3,597.8) for Gold Today: 3,591.2 — Tight first scale to cut risk quickly after trigger. 3,579 — Prior response area; often a pause/micro bounce zone. 3,575 — Just above the Sep 2 VAH; support-to-resistance flip potential. 3,566 — In line with Sep 2 VWAP; fair-value magnet intraday. 3,551.2 — Above Sep 2 POC and Sep 1 VAH; confluence makes it sticky. 3,539.6 — Just above Sep 1 VWAP; deeper mean-revert objective.
Heads-up: If we settle into a distribution range ~3,650–3,550, expect multiple legs both ways. Use the scalping targets to bank partials rather than hunting only for the final stop on the map.
“How to use this map”
Treat this as your navigation tool, not a signal generator. If price is hovering just under a threshold and fails to sustain above it, that often argues for the opposite side (e.g., a short near 3,600 if it can’t hold). Once a side triggers, work the partial targets to reduce risk and let a remainder run only if momentum confirms.
Quick education: VWAP & Volume Profile (why these levels matter)
VWAP (volume-weighted average price) is the session’s volume-anchored “fair value.” Price tends to revert to VWAP in balance and separate from it in trend. That’s why VWAP (and nearby bands) make sensible scale-out or re-entry zones.
Volume Profile maps where trading concentrated. POC (point of control) is the most-traded price—often a magnet—while Value Area High/Low (VAH/VAL) bracket the bulk of participation. Moves toward VAH/VAL commonly slow, and clean breaks can accelerate if volume confirms. Learning to read these reference points helps newer traders anchor decisions in objective structure instead of chasing candles.
Trade management reminders (tradeCompass method)
One trade per direction per tradeCompass plan.
Scale out at partial targets; after first partial, move stop to entry or better.
Stop placement should be logical to the threshold that validated the idea—never beyond the opposite threshold.
Confirmation is flexible: some prefer a couple of closes beyond the trigger, others use a timed confirmation (e.g., 5–15 minutes). Match it to your risk tolerance.
Don't Jump the Gun
No activation if 3,600 isn’t reclaimed. Patience first, trades second.
If 3,600 is retaken and fails, the bearish fade < 3,597.8 can develop into a swing toward the deeper targets listed.
If strength persists above 3,622, use the bullish ladder and let the market prove it can revisit the high zone.
This analysis uses the advanced volume-profiling and fair-value mapping approach we apply in tradeCompass on investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com).
Disclaimer: This is decision support, not investment advice. Futures and CFDs are risky; you can lose more than your initial stake. Always size positions prudently, use stops, and trade at your own risk.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.