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Gold cracks $3560 to hit a fresh record high
Nothing shines like gold, especially in a world that's being torn apart by petty politics and the undermining of the global institutions that have lifted billions of people out of poverty.
It obviously ends in money printing, because it always ends in money printing.
Technically, this move can reach close to $4000 after more than four months of consolidation.
The only big risk I see out there is that the Supreme Court takes away Trump's tariffs.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
WTI crude oil settles higher by $1.58
It was a nice day for the oil bulls as crude settled higher by $1.58 to $65.59. It's the highest for WTI since August 7.
I don't know if I would read too much into the upside at this point, given the growth concerns that are evident elsewhere. I think this is more about the concerns around Russian barrels and perhaps this weekend's OPEC+ decision.
The main sustainable catalyst I could see for oil would be if Trump' tariffs are blocked permanently. That said, a rebound to $70 could come with the ebb and flow of markets.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
Oil prices turn higher after being bounced around
The focus in commodity markets today is undoubtedly on previous metals but oil is trading at the best levels since August 6. WTI crude is up $1.65 to $65.66 in volatile trading that saw a $1 selloff and recovery in US trade.
Time spreads are widening today and that's helping the supply/demand picture. In geopolitics, the US is leaning on Europe to cut off Russian oil altogether while India and Russia grow closer.
In the Middle East, the imposed further sanctions on a network of tankers carrying Iranian oil.
Looking ahead, OPEC+ will meet on Sunday and it should be the first meeting in awhile where fresh barrels aren't added.
Technically, there isn't much standing in the way of a return to $70 if today's highs break.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. -
Gold Technical Analysis – Focus on the US data this week
Fundamental Overview
Gold surged into a new all-time high today after a strong run that started on Friday. There was no meaningful catalyst for the latest surge which might indicate that it was just a technical squeeze. Nevertheless, real yields have been falling steadily since Powell’s dovish tilt, so that provided a tailwind for higher gold prices.
The focus is now on the US labour market data that will culminate with the NFP report on Friday. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve and could weigh on gold. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets giving gold another boost.
In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing given their dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold eventually broke out of the 4-month long range and rallied all the way up to a new all-time high. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high to position for a drop back into the 3,245 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,245 support next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the pullback into the next trendline around the 3,438 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job Openings data. On Thursday, we get the US ADP, the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. -
Silver rises to the highest in 14 years
The silver bugs are a special bunch but they're having a moment today. Silver rose nearly $4% to $41.22/oz today, which is the highest since September 2011.
It's been a nearly straight line from $30 to $40 but I would highlight the left side of this chart when silver when from $18 to $50 for the kind of momentum that silver can generate. Those who missed out on the gold rally could soon pile in and break the all-time high.
The factors driving silver are the same as those driving gold, with some industrial demand thrown in. Mainly, it's the slump in the US dollar and worries that the Trump administration is going to undermine the Fed's mandate or destabilize the country.
One caveat is that silver seasonals are poor in September so it may be worth waiting for a pullback.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.